With apologies to George Gershwin, not so much if you're into equities. Rollercoasters are great for summer vacations, but not so much for your investment portfolio. Climatological summer - June, July, August, straddle the second and third quarters of the calendar year. And for the past 5 years, equity performance in those two middle quarters has been more exciting, or scary than any amusement park rollercoaster.
In the 9 Q2's and Q3's since 2008, 5 of those quarters have exhibited negative returns in equities, ranging from around -4% to -14%. "Wait a minute John", you might say, "that leaves 4 quarters of positive returns." Yes, but only 3, as one quarter was actually flat, and those 3 were quite good, in the 11% - 16% range. But 6 of the 9 quarters have had double digit moves, up or down, hence the rollercoaster reference. ("Is he finished with all those numbers yet?" Yes, I think so.)
So where does this leave us for the remainder of 2012? The players are all too familiar - the European debt situation, slowing growth in China, stubborn unemployment, political paralysis in Washington (with little hope of anything constructive before election day). But on the positive side, a turnaround in housing, improved credit health, stable energy prices and supportive interest rates around the world could encourage additional risk-taking. With negative real rates on cash and additional fixed income opportunities tenuous at best, equities have additional room to grow, if you like rollercoasters!
{"title":"Summertime, and the living is easy","content":"<p>With apologies to George Gershwin, not so much if you're into equities. Rollercoasters are great for summer vacations, but not so much for your investment portfolio. Climatological summer - June, July, August, straddle the second and third quarters of the calendar year. And for the past 5 years, equity performance in those two middle quarters has been more exciting, or scary than any amusement park rollercoaster.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0in;\">In the 9 Q2's and Q3's since 2008, 5 of those quarters have exhibited negative returns in equities, ranging from around -4% to -14%. \"Wait a minute John\", you might say, \"that leaves 4 quarters of positive returns.\" Yes, but only 3, as one quarter was actually flat, and those 3 were quite good, in the 11% - 16% range. But 6 of the 9 quarters have had double digit moves, up or down, hence the rollercoaster reference. (\"Is he finished with all those numbers yet?\" Yes, I think so.) <\/p>\r\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0in;\">So where does this leave us for the remainder of 2012? The players are all too familiar - the European debt situation, slowing growth in China, stubborn unemployment, political paralysis in Washington (with little hope of anything constructive before election day). But on the positive side, a turnaround in housing, improved credit health, stable energy prices and supportive interest rates around the world could encourage additional risk-taking. With negative real rates on cash and additional fixed income opportunities tenuous at best, equities have additional room to grow, if you like rollercoasters! <\/p>","excerpt":"Rollercoasters are great for summer vacations, but not so much for your investment portfolio.","url":"\/blog\/summertime-and-the-living-is-easy","publishedAt":1342636200,"media":[],"enableComments":false,"inMenu":false,"meta":null,"ordinal":0,"orderChildrenBy":"","id":"915fbf7ed75e461da464b706da1f4349","parent":"e76aa785e2f140b6a8bdcb322b91b397","node":51636,"created":1533183583,"modified":1537886163,"fresh":1,"type":"post","children":{},"relations":{"author":[{"title":"John Hartley","content":"","excerpt":"","url":"\/authors\/john-hartley","publishedAt":1395950791,"media":[{"type":"image","url":"https:\/\/nmcdn.io\/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da\/7868d48393ef4e3bb7bca8cdf7bc2f20\/files\/John-Hartley.jpg","title":"John Hartley","caption":"","size":"12259421"}],"source":null,"inMenu":false,"meta":{"title":"","description":"","excludeFromSitemap":"No"},"ordinal":0,"orderChildrenBy":"","permission":"write","tinyMCE_dummy":"","visibleTo":"Everyone","id":"41ca15a89f894bacb13c691a2492caa5","parent":"289475e074af44b1acb7a469b62466d2","node":20418,"created":1535036011,"modified":1536095948,"fresh":1,"type":"a4794d6408d04576a7acdd10c3fd249d","children":{}}]},"permission":"read"}
