Market Commentary and Investment Performance | Third Quarter (July – September 2023)

by Wilson Simmons

November 2, 2023

What we saw: A rebound attempt in the first half of the year gave way to a growing sense of uncertainty as markets endured negative economic headlines in the third quarter. The market’s negative performance was reflected across most major indices in the quarter.

Few major indices in the equity, fixed income, or other markets are producing notable returns and are failing to gain back significant ground from the deficits left by 2022’s bear markets. Most major indices are producing single digit returns to date, save for the tech-heavy NASDAQ and the S&P 500 Equity Index. After the meteoric market caps of companies such as Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla, the S&P 500 is now essentially a reflection of the tech sector, and less of broad capital markets. While international equity outperformed early in the year and is still outperforming U.S. domestic on a rolling one-year basis, U.S. domestic has outperformed over the first three quarters of 2023.

Looking forward: There are plenty of items for markets to digest over the remainder of 2023. This includes:

inflationary pressures
deteriorating housing market
elevated forward looking equity valuations
potential U.S. government shutdowns
a stalling Chinese economic recovery
a continued “wait and see” approach in the Federal Reserve’s campaign to fight inflation
expanding wars in Europe and the Middle East

The fundamental domestic bright spots remain, so the markets do have some positives to lean on:

resilient US consumer spending despite inflation
historically good employment data
inflation abating slightly
emerging efficiencies from technology
stabilizing GDP expectations

NCCF investment performance: Investment results were negative in the third quarter. Most NCCF managers regressed to mid-single digits for year-to-date returns whereas most were returning double digit gains halfway through the year. On a rolling one-year basis, the NCCF Investment Fund trails the Broad 70/30 benchmark returning 11.6% and 14.6% respectively. On the quarter, the NCCF Investment Fund returned -2.15% besting the Broad Benchmark return of -3.33%.

NCCF’s investment objective and approach: Prudent investment stewardship is essential to our mission of building long-term charitable assets for the benefit of our communities. Our primary investment objective is to preserve and protect historical endowment contributions over an indefinite time frame, while providing an average return that covers a 5% annual distribution, average 1% NCCF support fee and inflation.

Additional market commentary is available from NCCF’s investment advisor, Graystone Morgan Stanley. For investment information specific to your fund, please contact your NCCF Donor Engagement Officer or send an email to support@nccommunityfoundation.org.

Learn more about our investments

	1 year	3 years	5 years	10 years
All Managers (Net Weighted)	13.0%	4.4%	4.6%	5.9%
NCCF Investment Fund	11.6%	4.3%	4.5%	5.4%
Other NCCF Managers (Average)	12.6%	4.5%	5.1%	6.1%
Benchmark - Broad 70/30	14.6%	3.3%	4.8%	5.8%
Benchmark - NCCF Blended Index	12.9%	4.1%	5.4%	6.8%

Notes: Multi-year percentages are annualized. Returns are net of investment fees.

Benchmark - Broad: This benchmark is a general approach to investment. 70% of the MSCI All Country World Equity Index and 30% of the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. 

Benchmark - Blended: This benchmark takes a more diversified approach to investment. 35% R1000, 15% Russell Midcap, 5% R2000, 10% MSCI EAFE Net, 30% Barclays Govt/Credit Bond, 5% FTSE Treasury Bill 3 Month. 